|
Area housing market primed for stability
By Jeremy Boren and Chris Togneri
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
The worst U.S. housing recession in 16 years will lead to billions of dollars in lost economic activity next year, but the impact on the Pittsburgh area will be muted, economic analysts said.
A spike in home foreclosures will drive down property values nationwide by $1.2 trillion next year and slash tax collections by more than $6.6 billion, according to a report released Tuesday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The Pittsburgh region should buck national trends in part because residents here are more frugal, analysts said.
“Being a fairly fiscally conservative area to begin with, it’s very rare to see the exotic types of financing where people are financing 110 percent of their home or something like that,” said Anthony Cimino, president of Realtors Association of Metropolitan Pittsburgh and owner of ReMax Heritage in Forest Hills.
In addition, an ongoing regional population drain has restrained housing prices, analysts said.
“That’s always the main factor: supply and demand,” said Shawn Thomas, professor of finance at the University of Pittsburgh’s Katz graduate school of business.
Bill Urbanic, budget director for Pittsburgh City Council, said housing values in Allegheny County haven’t spiked as in other parts of the country in part because the county relies on 2002 as the base year for all real estate tax assessments. Pittsburgh’s real estate tax collections have remained flat at about $121.25 million a year.
That’s fortunate, Urbanic said, because the real estate tax fuels 29 percent of Pittsburgh’s $424 million budget and is the city’s biggest money generator.
“These factors have insulated our region from the wild peaks and valleys witnessed in states such as California and Florida where speculation, not conservation, is the norm,” added Daniel Murrer, vice president of RealSTATS, a South Side real estate information company.
Still, recent figures from West Penn Multi-List, a real estate broker information resource, show a slow-down in housing sales, which Cimino attributed to “hesitancy” among would-be home buyers brought on by the highly publicized subprime mortgage crisis.
Subprime loans are made to borrowers with low credit scores or heavy debts, and have the highest default rate. Those risks increase with mortgages that offer low “teaser” rates in the early years and then reset to higher rates that some borrowers can’t afford.
Barbara Kohl, executive vice present of West Penn Multi-List, said home sale closings have dipped 2.8 percent this year compared to last year in the 16-county Western Pennsylvania region. Closings have plummeted between 54 and 48 percent in California and Florida, respectively.
The average home price here is up 3.2 percent during the same period, from $146,302 last year to $150,962.
“So it’s not bad,” Kohl said.” When you look at this compared to what everybody else is experiencing, except for other conservative markets, we’re hanging on.”
Another sign the housing market here is stable: New listings are down 4.3 percent compared to last year.
“That means we don’t have this panic of people thinking they have to sell their homes unlike other parts of the country where they have a glut of new listings,” Kohl said.
Forecasting and consulting firm Global Insight prepared the report for the U.S. Conference of Mayors, which met behind closed doors in Detroit yesterday with lenders and borrower advocates to discuss how to confront the foreclosure problem.
The national forecast is grim.
According to the report:
• California, the hardest-hit state, will suffer a $630.6 billion decrease in property values that will cut property tax revenue to local governments by almost $3 billion.
• The New York metropolitan area is expected to lose $10.4 billion in economic activity in 2008, followed by Los Angeles at $8.3 billion, Dallas and Washington at $4 billion each, and Chicago at $3.9 billion.
• Mortgage problems will reduce the U.S. gross domestic product in 2008 by $166 billion. GDP is the value of goods and services produced and is considered the best barometer of the country’s economic fitness.
• Property values will decline by $1.2 trillion in 2008, with drops in home prices averaging 7 percent.
Jeremy Boren and Chris Togneri can be reached at jboren@tribweb.com or 412-765-2312.
Images and text copyright © 2007 by The Tribune-Review Publishing Co.
Reproduction or reuse prohibited without written consent from PghTrib.com |